#50 Will Software Developers disappear?

Mar 20, 2025

What if I told you that in just two years, 90% of all code will be written by AI?

Sounds unbelievable, right?

Yet, the numbers don’t lie:

This isn’t just speculation, it’s happening faster than most of us expected.

But let’s be clear: I’m not talking about ‘vibe coding’ where a single prompt magically builds an entire app.

That’s not where we are (yet).

I’m talking about AI-augmented engineers, developers who know how to code and are using AI to become exponentially more productive.

If you work in software, you’ve already felt the shift. But here are some hard facts to put things in perspective:

AI generates 40% of the code at most software companies – Paul Graham
25% of YC startups rely on 95% AI-generated code – Garry Tan, YC CEO
o3 (an AI model) ranks among the top 170 developers in the world – OpenAI CPO

This isn’t a glimpse into the future. It’s our present.

History shows that once machines start outperforming humans in a technical field, they don’t stop:

The pace of progress is accelerating.

What was a helpful tool last year is becoming the primary way software is built today.

Not long ago, AI-assisted coding was just that: a boost.

A way to write code faster.

Now? It’s how Software gets made.

So why aren’t we talking about it more?

Maybe it feels risky. Maybe admitting it makes us feel less legitimate as engineers.

But the reality is simple: this is already the norm.

Imagine walking into a bakery and discovering that 40% of the bread wasn’t made in-house. Would you still buy it?

You already do.

Bakeries don’t mill their flour. They leverage external suppliers to optimize their process.

And soon, most code won’t be written by humans, it will be curated by them.

The best engineers today aren’t the ones who write the most code.

They’re the ones who understand it best.

Tomorrow, the best engineers will be the ones who leverage AI the most effectively.

And that’s only going to become more extreme.